What to watch for in Premier League Matchweek 31

Topics such as Dean Smith's first game as Leicester's head coach and the likely source of Everton's goals are discussed.

Alex Keble discusses the major talking topics ahead of Matchweek 31 and the inevitable upheaval at both ends of the standings.

For Leicester, what exactly is Smith planning?

What kind of football Leicester City will play under new manager Dean Smith remains to be seen.

While he was in charge of Brentford, the club's style of play shifted to one that was more creative and offensive. Smith implemented this strategy in 2018–19, and it led to Aston Villa's 10-match winning streak in the Championship and subsequent challenging first season in the Premier League.

Villa, who were simply too easy to play through, had only 25 points after 28 matches of his maiden season as a Premier League manager and looked doomed to be relegated.

Smith and John Terry, who is also now a member of the Leicester squad, worked on a new defensive formation during the three-month suspension that the pandemic forced in early March 2020. Villa no longer relies on their traditional passing out from the back and mass assault strategies.

Instead, they went back to a more defensive formation that relied on Jack Grealish to start counterattacks after the opponent had been denied good scoring opportunities. The abrupt change was warranted by the eight points gained in the last four games.

Villa's new strategy for the upcoming season

 First 28 matchesLast 10 matches
Possession45.7%39.3%
Defensive third touches/90197.2151.7
Miscontrols/9015.311.8
Dispossessions/908.96.5
Points2310

For such a daunting first encounter against Manchester City and with the Foxes being so vulnerable when pressing up under Brendan Rodgers, it's conceivable that Smith will employ this pattern at Leicester.

While Leicester has faced the most shots from high turnovers (50), Man City has scored the most goals (nine) from such situations this season in the Premier League.

MCI 17:30 on Saturday, April 15 LEI

The broad nature of Leicester's possession game has been deteriorating recently. They've lost despite having more than 60% of the possession six times this season in the Premier League.

They have only gained two points for possession share in their last ten Premier League matches. Then then, maybe Smith doesn't need the ball quite as much.

Smith may want to play through James Maddison, who has scored in his past two trips to the Etihad Stadium because he is often compared to Grealish and is also deadly on the break.

Smith may use April and May as a trial run for a super-defensive formation that will be used on the trip to Man City.

Can Arsenal handle the challenge posed by West Ham?

The popular belief that West Ham United is struggling to get points is quickly becoming inaccurate.

The 15 points the Hammers have earned over their last 10 Premier League matches is an average of 1.5 points per game, matching their record-setting performance from the 2021/22 season.

On the 16th of April at 14:00 ARS WHU,

What altered? West Ham's success could be attributed to a combination of good fortune and a higher level of finishing ability.

They scored 15 goals on 23.5 Expected Goals (xG) in their first 19 games, but have only scored 12 goals on 13.4 xG in their last 10 games.

Their -11.4 goals scored minus xG differential is still the most in the Premier League, although it is quickly shrinking.

Whatever the case may be, Arsenal can not expect a cakewalk despite West Ham's 5-1 home loss to Newcastle United earlier this month. Mikel Arteta will remember that David Moyes' team led 1-0 before Arsenal rallied for a 3-1 victory in the rematch at Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners won't want to go through that again.

Arsenal has to bounce back from last weekend's disappointing 2-2 draw at Anfield with confidence and strength. West Ham is in better form than most people realize, so any fans who are easing up because they know they're playing a relegation candidate will be disappointed.

Cooper's new physique has the potential to annoy Man U.

Nottingham Forest is winless in their previous nine matches and is going down quickly, but their 2-0 loss at Aston Villa last weekend showcased a notable tactical shift that makes Sunday's matchup against Manchester United intriguing.

Sunday, April 16th, NFO, 16:30 MUN

Steve Cooper experimented with a different strategy during a Villa encounter for the second time this season. In a 1-1 tie with Villa back in October, Cooper played much more conservatively after a string of five consecutive losses.

After this, they went on to win 18 of their following 12 matches, despite having fewer possessions overall (36.5%) than their opponents (44.5%).

Cooper returned to Villa to try out a new configuration, this time a 3-4-2-1, but the opposition ultimately caught on to his adjustment.

Neco Williams and Harry Toffolo, who play on the wings, appeared more secure with an extra central defender protecting them in the 1-0 loss at Villa Park. Forest countered Villa's attempts to create through the center by employing a man-to-man strategy with two No. 10s, Danilo and Morgan Gibbs-White.

This ability to shut down the middle will be vital against a Manchester United club with a healthy Casemiro, especially if Erik ten Hag opts to play Bruno Fernandes in a deeper playmaking role.

A fresh-back five gives a stubbornly defensive Forest team a chance, regardless of formation. After all, United has failed to win any of its last four road games.

Will Villa be able to make it in Europe?

Only Arsenal and Man City have more points and victories since Unai Emery's debut Premier League encounter as Villa manager back in November.

Saturday, April 15th, 12:30 pm AVL NEW

His stat line reads 35 points in 17 games, or 2.1 per game, which translates to 78 points in a full season of 38 games.

That's good enough for a top-three finish in the standings on nine of the last ten seasons, including second place in three of those years.

It's absurd statistics like that one that has Villa fans hoping against hope for a place in the top four.

A win against Newcastle United at Villa Park in Saturday's early kickoff would significantly improve their odds of finishing in the top five, which Opta's modeling puts at only 1.8%.

As a result, Villa would be six points behind Eddie Howe's team and Newcastle's five-game winning streak would come to an end.

To cut the UEFA Champions League, Aston Villa would need to go on a historic winning streak and hope that a victory this weekend would send Newcastle into a tailspin.

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Goals are crucial in this game for Everton.

This season, as little as 35 points may be needed to avoid relegation, meaning Everton needs at least another eight points based on the points-per-match statistics of the teams currently in the relegation battle.

Date: Saturday, April 15 Time: 15:00 FUL

Fulham on Saturday appears like a defining moment for Everton when you consider that 10 of their 12 points were won at Goodison Park, where the Toffees only have four matches left, including Man City and Newcastle.

This is a fight that can be won. After losing 16 consecutive Premier League games, Fulham has lost their past four as well, allowing 12 goals in the process.

With Aleksandar Mitrovic still out, Everton may have an easier time bullying their opponents, especially if Dyche reverts to a 4-5-1 formation after his 4-4-2 experiment at Old Trafford last weekend failed.

The source of Everton's scoring, though, is still up in the air. Since late October, they are 2 for 24 when scoring 2 or more goals, and their leading scorer, Demarai Gray, has only 4 goals for the Premier League.

In the previous home match against Tottenham Hotspur, the Toffees posed a greater danger, recording 15 shots while coming back from a man down to earn a late 1-1 draw.

Even if this match won't go down as a classic, it's probably the last time Everton will host a club from outside the current top four at Goodison Park until the season's final day.

Are Saints capable of stopping Palace's possession game?

With Eberechi Eze and Jeffrey Schlupp playing as No. 8s behind a forward three, it looks like Roy Hodgson has orchestrated Crystal Palace's renaissance on a foundation of free-flowing attacking football in the center of the field.

They tied a club record with 31 shots on goal against Leicester and subsequently set a new Premier League record with 33 successful dribbles against Leeds United.

The 15th of April, SOU 15:00 CRY

But there's cause to think this triumph won't last. Leicester has been disorganized for some time, while Leeds is well-known for their ferocious pressing, leaving themselves open to being dribbled past.

It's instructive that Leeds and Leicester are first and second in the Premier League in terms of the number of take-ons attempted against them.

It's no surprise that Hodgson has helped Palace, the team with the second-most take-on attempts in the league (618) win both of their first games.

Southampton, on the other hand, has allowed the third-fewest take-ons that result in a shot (27), behind only Arsenal and Man City, while also committing the fifth-fewest errors that result in a shoot (six) and leading the league in overall interceptions (327) while sitting in last place.

It was quite tough for Tottenham Hotspur's players to dribble through Saints last month, as depicted in the graphic below. The game took place at St. Mary's Stadium.

Southampton, in contrast to Leeds and Leicester, is better positioned defensively to contain Hodgson's squad.

 


Sophia Ela

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